Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
