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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.