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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still