Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
