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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd